Because many forecasters have developed different ways of calculating
holiday sales, most early predictions for November and December sales
gains range between 5% and 7.5% although one is only 2.5%, according to
today's Wall Street Journal.
Some organizations exclude online sales, which have become ever more important each year. This year, for example, ComScore estimates nontravel online spending will reach $24 billion this year, up 25% over last year. Others now include January or some January sales because gift cards have become a more significant part of holiday giving. Michael Niemira, economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers, estimates that 38% of the value of gift cards bought during the 2005 holiday season was redeemed in January 2006.
Among contradictory economic indicators that are affecting predictions this year: falling energy prices and rising stock market values on one hand and a slowing housing market and lagging September general retail sales figures on the other.
Other variables particular to this year: the extra shopping day between Thanksgiving and Christmas should result in higher sales, but because Christmas is on a Monday, some shoppers may procrastinate more than usual.
And in case anyone frets too much about holiday sales prognostications--or the value of this recap--rest assured that they may not matter: last year, most forecasts were off, "underestimating what turned out to be a strong season," as the Journal put it.
Some organizations exclude online sales, which have become ever more important each year. This year, for example, ComScore estimates nontravel online spending will reach $24 billion this year, up 25% over last year. Others now include January or some January sales because gift cards have become a more significant part of holiday giving. Michael Niemira, economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers, estimates that 38% of the value of gift cards bought during the 2005 holiday season was redeemed in January 2006.
Among contradictory economic indicators that are affecting predictions this year: falling energy prices and rising stock market values on one hand and a slowing housing market and lagging September general retail sales figures on the other.
Other variables particular to this year: the extra shopping day between Thanksgiving and Christmas should result in higher sales, but because Christmas is on a Monday, some shoppers may procrastinate more than usual.
And in case anyone frets too much about holiday sales prognostications--or the value of this recap--rest assured that they may not matter: last year, most forecasts were off, "underestimating what turned out to be a strong season," as the Journal put it.