In 1894, Octave Uzanne published a story in Scribner's magazine titled "The End of Books," which recounts a meeting in London of "a group of book-lovers, artists, men of science and of learning" after they had attended a disturbing Royal Institute lecture at which the presenter had said that "the end of the terrestrial globe and of the human race was mathematically certain to occur in precisely ten million years."
The narrator, known as the Bibliophile, tells his companions: "I do not believe (and the progress of electricity and modern mechanism forbids me to believe) that Gutenberg's invention can do otherwise than sooner or later fall into desuetude. Printing, which since 1436 has reigned despotically over the mind of man, is, in my opinion, threatened with death by the various devices for registering sound which have lately been invented, and which little by little will go on to perfection."
The Bibliophile predicts that what we now call audiobooks, and the various ways we listen to them--will be the downfall of printed books. He anticipates a "pocket apparatus" that can be "kept in a simple opera-glass case" and make reading portable. "At home, walking, sightseeing , fortunate hearers will experience the ineffable delight of reconciling hygiene with instruction; of nourishing their minds while exercising their muscles."
Open Culture, which recently highlighted Uzanne's story, wrote that "however striking his prescience in other respects, the Bibliophile didn't know--though Uzanne may have--that books would persist through it all."
Just before I encountered the Open Culture piece, I'd read the Bookseller's annual survey of forecasts by book trade folks, headlined: "Predictions: what lies ahead for the book trade in 2025?"
Now while I'm really more of an adapt-and-survive kind of guy, I do have a bit of a fondness for predictions at the beginning of each year. For those people speaking to the Bookseller, "prediction" may have been an exaggeration, since much of their focus was understandably on current concerns like the influence of AI on the book trade, the ongoing power of BookTok as a sales tool, uncertainties about government support/interference, and the decline in numbers regarding children reading for pleasure. Here's a sampling of what some of them told the Bookseller:
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Meryl Halls |
"The new government seems to have a genuine desire to see high streets thrive," said Meryl Halls, managing director of the Booksellers Association of the U.K. & Ireland, "and has already signaled thoughtful policies around digital dominance, business rates and communities, but the transition period--especially in the rates arena--will be painful for some in the short term. Medium term, impacts on the cost of doing business from the Budget will kick in and may put the brakes on bookshop expansion, and will require booksellers to run ever faster to keep up.
"Brexit fallout will continue to make life difficult in relation to the EU, and for our Irish members, Amazon's arrival and the ongoing impact from school-book provision will continue to test the mettle of our Irish members. At the Booksellers Association, we obviously have plans to continue to advocate for bookselling as loudly as ever across government and the industry, with plans to help diversify--and drive excellence in--bookselling.
"It is likely we will see a step change in the availability in audiobook and e-books for the indie sector, which could help drive sales. In geopolitics, uncertainty will reign as the Trump presidency beds in. Hold onto your hats."
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Nicole Vanderbilt |
Nicole Vanderbilt, managing director of Bookshop.org UK, observed: "We predict that in 2025, indies will defy the odds once again, despite being up against even more difficult conditions.... Indie bookshops will need to find new ways to grow reader support online and off--be that through growing their digital footprint or more enhanced in-store experiences. We know they will continue to play pivotal roles in their communities and in the lives of readers."
Waterstones COO Kate Skipper said that while AI "will inevitably continue to spew out self-published drivel, we watch with interest to see how publishing can harness its power more productively."
Bloomsbury Publishing CEO Nigel Newton said, "Culture wars are certain to continue to be waged in 2025 with people making accusations of each other which are simply not true. Book publishers will have to have courage in dealing with this as it is only likely to intensify under a Trump presidency changing the world balance of power and AI spreading false information."
David Shelley, CEO of Hachette UK and Hachette Book Group, expressed "a hope rather than a prediction in 2025... that as an industry we can help encourage more people to read aloud to children and start them in the habit of reading for pleasure."
Literary agent Silé Edwards of Andrew Nurnberg Associates noted that trying to predict how 2025 will look "after the chaos that was 2024 feels unwise, but after a year of seismic shifts culturally, politically and economically I feel safe in saying that the next year for publishing will largely about seeking stability."
In "The End of Books," the Bibliophile concludes with this bold prediction: "Be all this as it may, I think that if books have a destiny, that destiny is on the eve of being accomplished; the printed book is about to disappear. After us the last of books, gentlemen!"
Oops.